9/10 Trade Plan

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⚡ Trade Plan

Ticker: /ES (September Contract)

Bias: Neutral → Directional after PPI

Market Condition: Range / Pre-PPI Chop

🛡️ Trade Less. Demand Confirmation. Protect Accounts.

🧭 Context

ES continues to chop inside the established range, currently around 7649.75. The 50DMA at 7636.44 and PDL at 7628.75 remain the key downside decision area, while PDH 7691.25 and the 20DMA at 7703.33 cap the upside. PPI at 8:30 is the catalyst — expect volatility, but let price establish direction before committing.

📊 Key Levels

🟥 Resistance

• 7691.25 PDH

• 7703.33 20DMA

🟩 Support

• 7636.44 50DMA

• 7628.75 PDL

• 7654–7647 Demand

⭐ Highest Probability — 7667–7672 Pop & Fade Short

Trigger: CPI pushes into 7667–7672 and price rejects/fails to reclaim the zone.
Target: 7629 → 7613 → 7600
Invalidation: Acceptance above 7672.

🟢 Second Opportunity — 7629–7632 Breakdown Short

Trigger: Clean break below 7629–7632 followed by a failed retest.
Target: 7613 → 7600
Invalidation: Reclaim of 7632.

🟡 Only If — 7672 Reclaim Long

Trigger: CPI reaction reclaims and holds above 7672.
Target: 7691 → 7703
Invalidation: Failed reclaim back below 7672.

🔴 Avoid

• Trading the middle of 7632–7667 before CPI.

• Guessing the CPI direction.

• Chasing the first CPI candle.

• Shorting directly into 7629–7632 demand.

🎯 Focus

• 7667–7672 rejects → 7629–7632

• 7629 fails → 7613 → 7600

• 7672 reclaims → 7691 → 7703

Today's Reminder: CPI is the catalyst. Don't predict the move — trade the reaction.

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